Martingale for Sports Bettors (6 Strategy Ideas for Winning)

The Martingale system is a betting strategy used mostly on table games with even money payouts. You could use it on craps, for example, but not on slot machines. This post, though, is about the Martingale for sports bettors.

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The origin of the Martingale – 18^th century France – is part of the genesis story of roulette, making it part of the story of casino gambling in general. This betting tactic is deceptively simple – it can be summed up as “double your bets after each losing round.”

The Martingale survives because of its elegance. It also survives because it passes a mathematical smell test to math-struggling gamblers.

How does Martingale sports betting work?

In this post, I offer 6 Martingale sports betting strategy ideas that you might not have already thought of.

Here’s my goal:

I want you to think about how this gambling system might change based on the type of gambling.

Keep in mind that using systems like the Martingale is one of the 9 biggest mistakes sports bettors make, at least according to SportsBettingHeadquarters.

Also, you might be interested in my post about the best minimum deposit sportsbooks.

How Martingale Sports Betting Works

The idea behind applying Martingale tactics to sports bets is the same as applying it to any contest. By doubling your wager after a loss, you’ll recoup any losses while setting yourself up for a big win. Applied to sports bets, Martingale systems look something like this:

Step 1 – I place a sports bet. I’ll take the over on Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns at 217.5, because I think game one of the NBA Finals is going to be a high-energy shootout. I drop $50 at my favorite online sportsbook.

Step 2 – The game plays out nowhere near the intensity I expected, and I lose. I then automatically know the size of my next wager – $100. If it pays out, I’ll recoup the losses I just incurred. I make the same wager on game two, but I drop $100 this time – I’m just sure that these two teams are just waiting to explode for a huge night.

Step 3 – Beat by the book again, Milwaukee and Phoenix grind out a boring game two. Because I’m using Martingale, I already know that my next bet will be $200, and I’ve got my eye on game three.

I could repeat this process as long as my bankroll could withstand it. In reality, a $200 bet on any single proposition would have me sweating bullets.

But I offered this example with simple round (much bigger than normal) numbers for the sake of argument.

The Big Flaw in the Martingale Betting System

Part of the flaw of the Martingale is also one reason for its sticking power – simplicity. When your entire gambling system can be summed up in a few words, you’ve created something elegant. You’ve also created a very short-sighted philosophy that fails to consider the eventual end.

The big Martingale betting system flaw is that it won’t take long before a wager will double into unreasonable territory. Consider my example earlier. If I lost five wagers in a row, my initial $50 outlay balloons into $1,600. How many sports bettors are comfortable dropping that much at their online book on one wager?

Keep running with that, and let’s say I lose just two more bets. My $1,600 bet is suddenly $6,400 on one wager. How big was my bankroll to begin with, and what percentage of my wallet does that $6,400 represent?

An even more important “where the rubber meets the road” type of question is – how many online books will even do that kind of business with me?

I’m an American and I use legal online services for most of my wagers. The sites I use most frequently won’t take any bet above around $5,000, and even that is only available on certain sports and in certain propositions. You can’t necessarily just waltz in and drop five stacks on sportsbetting.ag or whatever – especially not if it’s part of a Martingale system. Believe me, once they recognize what you’re doing, you’re going to be shut down.

The big flaw with the Martingale is two facts – bettors don’t have unlimited funds, nor do we have a venue that will accept a series of increasingly-large and ridiculous wagers that are obviously part of a gambling system. Add to that the fact that losing runs of up to ten in a row are not uncommon, especially when considered across several weeks or months of sports bets, and it’s clear why no serious gambler really uses this tactic.

How You Might Use Martingale Sports Betting to Get an Edge

Wise readers may have already thought: “But wait a minute. What if the bets in the example had gone differently? Wouldn’t the Martingale have worked?” Here’s how you might use this strategy to gain an edge.

In the short-term, what we call “Martingale” is really just an attempt to recoup a loss. Let’s face it, doubling a bet after a loss will technically work to recoup that loss if the bet pays off. Using Martingale in the extreme short-term can give bettors a sort of edge.

But can we call that single act of doubling-to-recoup a gambling system?

If you want to use Martingale to create an advantage situation, apply it over a small number of wagers. Taking a gambling newcomer to a roulette wheel and using the Martingale on low-stakes bets is fun – your date will be impressed by your eventual (short-term) success, and you’ll pocket a little bit of money. Let’s say you’re betting $5 on black, doubling after losses. Once you get to your sixth loss in a row, and you drop that $160 bet on black, you’ll understand the Martingale fascination.

The Martingale Doesn’t Replace Other Sports Betting Strategies

If you want to use Martingale, I’m not going to rain on your parade. So long as you understand it as a way to make your bets more entertaining, or more manageable, and not as a can’t-lose gambling strategy that guarantees winnings, there’s no harm in doubling bets after losses.

That said, I still recommend a few basic good gambling habits for all sports bettors:

Practice Good Money Management

Placing smart bets isn’t all about good handicapping or betting systems. The basics of money management are to create unit bets, set win minimums and maximums, and to never play with money you can’t afford to lose. Rule of thumb here is to place bets that represent no more than 1%-3% of your total bankroll. If I set aside $1,000 for the entire NFL season, I have 100 wagers at a unit bet size of $10. Counter to the Martingale system, you should never “chase losses” if you’re practicing good money management. The best way to make sure your bankroll grows is to work to control the amount you take out of it each week.

Place Sober Bets

I’m using the word “sober” here in two ways – don’t place wagers while you’re intoxicated, but also make sure your mental state is good before you bet. A drink, a joint, a snort, whatever the substance may be, it’s going to dull your senses and distract you from smart gambling. The same goes for your mental state – if you don’t think anxiety or depression or just plain anger affects your ability to play, consider how you feel while watching your favorite team in the playoffs. A successful bettor is a sober bettor.

Do Your Homework

Hunch bets are fun. I’m guilty of placing bets for entertainment, especially during big events like the NBA Finals or March Madness. I don’t consider these un-researched wagers seriously, not any more than a pro poker player would consider a lotto ticket part of his overall gaming strategy. The world’s best sports bettors, those few thousands of anonymous sharps that make a living placing sports wagers, do enough homework and have enough experience to outwit sportsbooks 54% of the time. The rest of us can learn from them, compiling stats, looking for win and loss trends, following and tracking the success of various systems, and analyzing our past performance. We may not be able to beat the book like the pros, but we can use research to gain an edge, however small.

Shop Around for Sportsbooks

Looking for value can make you a better gambler without the use of any system or any real sports knowledge whatsoever. It isn’t all about finding the best price – often a fool’s errand in the days of online bookmaking. Though the days of arbitrage sports betting are basically over, shopping lines and looking for sportsbook bonuses and other offers can make the very act of shopping around profitable. I’ve made this a big part of my overall sports gambling tactics book and I’ve had lots of small gains against the books that add up over years of play.

Is Using the Martingale for Sports Bettors Cheating?

Gambling law is complicated. In some famous gaming areas, counting cards is an illegal tactic. In Atlantic City, counting cards is a recognized strategy, and casino blackjack rules have changed to accommodate. Since the Martingale is a betting strategy, and a simple one, it would be difficult for gambling halls to justify an outright opposition to it.

The fact that casinos aren’t all that bothered by this tactic should tell you all you need to know about its effectiveness. Technically, the Martingale system is legal. Whether or not you are allowed to use it is up to the casino or sportsbook taking your bets. I’ve heard of people being discouraged from mechanically doubling bets at roulette tables, I’m sure online books or casino sportsbooks have the right to tell you to knock it off.

Variations of the Martingale Sports Betting Strategy to Try

The Internet is crawling with Martingale content. I’ve found three variations that pop up in all sorts of Martingale-related content. I guess that means these are the most popular Martingale variants.

Here’s a quick look at each of them:

Grand Martingale

By adding a single unit bet after every loss, you’re playing the Grand version of this popular tactic. The idea here is not just to recoup your losses but actually add to your bankroll. Should you lose four bets in a row, a fifth successful Grand Martingale bet would actually win you more money. Obviously, all the same issues arise here – you’ll quickly risk big losses and run headfirst into the casino or sportsbook’s bet limit.

Mini-Martingale

Various forms of this wager system exist, all of them based on the same principle. By only doubling after every other loss, you can still gain some benefit in terms of gaining back losses, but risk fewer incidences of huge recovery bets and can play longer under most casino wager limits. Unfortunately for fans of the mini-Martingale, the system is still flawed and will not magically win you money regardless of how many doubles you skip.

Anti-Martingale

Instead of doubling losses, what happens if you double after wins? The purpose of the anti-Martingale is not to recoup losses but to avoid big losses with larger (and less frequent) wins. In this case, a single loss can wipe out all gains made from winning double-down bets. The anti-Martingale is just the same old system but told in reverse. Again, fun to play, but not a can’t-miss strategy.

Conclusion

Small-stakes sports bettors will have some short-term success with the Martingale system. This helps cement this tactic in the minds of casual gamblers. What the Martingale system can never be is a get-rich quick scheme to outsmart a sportsbook. Yes, this post spent a lot of time warning of cold streaks, without really acknowledging their more-attractive cousin, the hot streak. If a player hits a hot streak and uses the Martingale tactic, it’s very possible that they’ll swear by it the rest of their lives.

Using this tactic to add some fun to your sports bets is a good idea. Employing any form of Martingale (reverse-, anti-, etc.) should not be the backbone of any serious sports gambling strategy.